Category: Amazon

Almost no one

Every time you talk about reaching everyone, that you imagine changing “the world,” you should fine yourself a nickel.

It’s almost impossible to reach everyone.

The most popular podcast in the world has reached one out of every 2,000 people on the planet. By a rounding error, that’s not nearly everyone, in fact, it’s essentially no one.

The same is true for the most popular salsa, the bestselling writer and the leading non-profit.

You’re going to reach virtually no one.

That’s okay.

The question is: which no one?

Your smallest viable audience holds you to account. It forces a focus and gives you nowhere to hide.

But first, you need to choose.

       

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China’s airport facial recognition kiosks should make us fear for our privacy

When the “wow” factor wears off, privacy concerns become evident.

Matthew Brennan, an expert on Chinese technology, recently posted a short video clip of the new facial recognition kiosks airlines have installed in some airports in China. As you can see from the clip below, Brennan simply needed to walk near the kiosk for it to scan his face and have it accurately identify him and his flight plans, complete with giving him a map and directions to his gate.

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Markets Wobble, Uber and Careem, Belt and Road: CEO Daily for March 25, 2019

Happy Monday.

Take a moment amid the din this morning to appreciate a man who represents what truly makes America great: Robert Mueller. He took on a thankless task with dignity, integrity, a willingness to sacrifice his own reputation for a public cause, and an unflinching commitment to the rule of law. He proved the system still works, even in the face of unprecedented political turmoil. That’s good for the country, and ultimately good for business.

Less good are continuing revelations about the Boeing 737 Max. Afraid of losing ground to rival Airbus, the company appears to have taken some shortcuts in developing the plane… and succeeded in getting the FAA to play along with its gambit. The new revelations make it clear that my grading of CEO Dennis Muilenburg’s response to the plane’s two crashes was premature. Right now, he deserves an incomplete. The fact that he took eight days after the Ethiopian Airlines crash before making a public statement makes me think he is not the man to lead the company out of its deepening hole. For the American economy–and the global economy–Boeing is too big to fail. But I predict a new person in the pilot’s seat by the end of the year.

More news below. And go here for an advance look at Apple’s pivot-to-subscriptions, which will be announced today.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com

Top News

Markets Wobble

This week had a bad start in Asia, thanks to recession fears–Nikkei down 3%, Shanghai Composite down 2%, Hang Seng down 2%, and so on. Early trading in Europe was also less than great, with the Stoxx Europe 600 being down 0.3% at the time of writing. U.S. futures are also slightly in the red. MarketWatch

Uber and Careem

Uber is set to buy Middle Eastern rival Careem this week for $3.1 billion in cash and convertible notes, according to Bloomberg, which says the deal could be announced as early as tomorrow. Uber is expected to launch its long-awaited IPO next month, at a valuation of as much as $120 billion. Bloomberg

Belt and Road

The Italian government would like to reassure Washington that its signing-up to China’s Belt and Road Initiative is “nothing to worry about,” despite the U.S.’s opposition to the deal. “We are maximizing all precautionary measures, and I want to tell the U.S., and I will tell them as well in next week’s visit, that they are our allies, and that we understand their concerns,” said Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio, who added that the deal had no 5G component. CNBC

Naspers Listing

The African media giant Naspers, which owns almost a third of the Chinese online giant Tencent, is to make a European listing that will spin off that stake and other international investments such as its stake in Russia’s Mail.ru. Naspers will own 75% of the new company, which should be “Europe’s largest listed consumer internet company by asset value.” It will be listed on the Euronext Amsterdam and in Johannesburg. Financial Times

Around the Water Cooler

Barr Summary

What does Attorney General William Barr’s summary of the Mueller report really say, from a legal standpoint? The Lawfare team notes that, while it certainly contains good news for the president on the “collusion” front, we don’t yet know the full implications. Barr’s letter explicitly notes that Mueller’s probe did not exonerate Trump of obstruction of justice. Lawfare: “The letter suggests but does not state… that the Mueller report has teed up the question of presidential obstruction for evaluation by a different actor–to wit, by Congress–on a decidedly noncriminal basis.” Lawfare

May’s Position

The weekend saw a flurry of rumors that British Prime Minister Theresa May would be ousted by members of her cabinet, to be replaced by her de-facto deputy, David Lidington, or by Brexiteer Michael Gove. The rumors petered out quickly, but something has to give soon. At least a million people marched Saturday in London to demand the fresh Brexit referendum that May is determined not to allow, and over 5 million signed an anti-Brexit petition. Even Rupert Murdoch’s pro-Brexit Sun newspaper is calling for May to name her own exit date. Reuters

Lynch Charges

U.S. prosecutors have filed new charges against Mike Lynch, the British entrepreneur who sold his data firm Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard. The 17-count indictment now includes new charges of securities fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy. HP says Lynch and former Autonomy CFO Sushovan Hussain inflated the company’s value before the $11.7 billion sale, which led to an $8.8 billion write-down, and is suing them in the U.K. for $5.1 billion; the trial begins today. BBC

Autonomous Warning

Prematurely launching self-driving cars would be “irresponsible” and could end delaying “the best lifesaver in the history of the car” due to an impact on public and regulatory trust, according to Volvo CEO Hakan Samuelsson. “You have to be very careful when you introduce this, and that’s why I think it has to be safer than perceived,” he said. FT

This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer. Find previous editions here, and sign up for other Fortune newsletters here.

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TAM SAM SOM: What Do They Mean & How Do You Calculate Them?

With all the excitement that comes with starting a new company and gauging its industry’s profit potential or forecasting a revenue goal for your business, you must remember to root these figures in reality.

If you don’t, you could enter a market that doesn’t have a large enough market size to convince investors to back you, or you could set an unrealistic revenue goal for your business and burn your employees out.

Click here to get started with our free market research kit.

To help you avoid these issues, we’ve put together a guide that’ll teach you exactly how to calculate your industry’s total addressable market, serviceable addressable market, and share of market. Read on to start setting realistic revenue goals and entering markets that are worth your time and resources.

TAM SAM SOM Template

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

Total addressable market or TAM refers to the total market demand for a product or service. It’s the maximum amount of revenue a business can possibly generate by selling their product or service in a specific market. Total addressable market is most useful for businesses to objectively estimate a specific market’s potential for growth.

According to MIT’s Global Startup Labs program, the best way to calculate total addressable market is by running a bottom-up analysis of an industry. A bottom-up analysis involves counting the total number of customers in a market (which you can do by adding up the amount of customers each company in this market has) and multiplying that number by the average annual revenue of each customer in this market.

Total Addressable Market Formula

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

Unless you’re a monopoly, you most likely can’t capture the total addressable market for your product or service. Even if you only have one competitor, it would still be extremely difficult to convince an entire market to only buy your product or service. That’s why it’s crucial to measure your serviceable available market to determine how many companies would realistically benefit from buying your product or service.

To calculate your serviceable addressable market, count up all the potential customers that would be a good fit for your business and multiply that number by the average annual revenue of these types of customer in your market.

Serviceable Addressable Market Formula

SOM (Share of Market)

Share of market is the size of your actual customer base or the realistic percentage of your serviceable addressable market that you can capture. This figure can help you predict the amount of revenue you can actually generate within your market.

To calculate share of market, divide your revenue from last year by your industry’s serviceable addressable market from last year. This percentage is your market share from last year. Then, multiply your market share from last year by your industry’s serviceable addressable market from this year.

Share of Market Formula
market research

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TAM SAM SOM: What Do They Mean & How Do You Calculate Them?

With all the excitement that comes with starting a new company and gauging its industry’s profit potential or forecasting a revenue goal for your business, you must remember to root these figures in reality.

If you don’t, you could enter a market that doesn’t have a large enough market size to convince investors to back you, or you could set an unrealistic revenue goal for your business and burn your employees out.

Click here to get started with our free market research kit.

To help you avoid these issues, we’ve put together a guide that’ll teach you exactly how to calculate your industry’s total addressable market, serviceable addressable market, and share of market. Read on to start setting realistic revenue goals and entering markets that are worth your time and resources.

TAM SAM SOM Template

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

Total addressable market or TAM refers to the total market demand for a product or service. It’s the maximum amount of revenue a business can possibly generate by selling their product or service in a specific market. Total addressable market is most useful for businesses to objectively estimate a specific market’s potential for growth.

According to MIT’s Global Startup Labs program, the best way to calculate total addressable market is by running a bottom-up analysis of an industry. A bottom-up analysis involves counting the total number of customers in a market (which you can do by adding up the amount of customers each company in this market has) and multiplying that number by the average annual revenue of each customer in this market.

Total Addressable Market Formula

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

Unless you’re a monopoly, you most likely can’t capture the total addressable market for your product or service. Even if you only have one competitor, it would still be extremely difficult to convince an entire market to only buy your product or service. That’s why it’s crucial to measure your serviceable available market to determine how many companies would realistically benefit from buying your product or service.

To calculate your serviceable addressable market, count up all the potential customers that would be a good fit for your business and multiply that number by the average annual revenue of these types of customer in your market.

Serviceable Addressable Market Formula

SOM (Share of Market)

Share of market is the size of your actual customer base or the realistic percentage of your serviceable addressable market that you can capture. This figure can help you predict the amount of revenue you can actually generate within your market.

To calculate share of market, divide your revenue from last year by your industry’s serviceable addressable market from last year. This percentage is your market share from last year. Then, multiply your market share from last year by your industry’s serviceable addressable market from this year.

Share of Market Formula
market research

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